Myth of Melbourne’s cold July

Just like this year’s “cool summer” in Melbourne people are now bitching about a cold winter. It’s just random variation around a long term Mean, people – albeit the Mean is gradually moving up. The Mean Maximum Temperature to July 14 is 13.1 which is not much below the long term Mean of 13.5. The Decile 1 Mean is 10.9 which tell us that 10% of all years have a July Mean Maximum Temperature equal to or below 10.9 degrees. Today, Bastille Day, is the second July day with a temperature below 10.9 degrees. So we have not had that many cold days compared to a really cold year where half the days or more would be below that temperature. The Mean Minimum Temperature to date is 7.2 degrees which is actually above the long run Mean Minimum of 6.0 degrees. This is where global warming is actually turning up here in Melbourne as the overnight Minima are more often above the Mean than are the Maxima. One aspect of a cold winter that I do not expect to see again in my lifetime is a recorded temperature below Zero. The long run averages suggest that we should see one of these below zero mornings each winter. Can anyone recall the last time that happened? OK – points in if you said “urban heat island” – that will be a contributory factor. I got to Melbourne 40 years back and one of my first impressions as a boy from the inland was what a bunch of pussies Melburnians were about cold weather and how much they over heated their houses. Nothing since then has led me to change my opinion. Having pointed all this “Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics” out I am prepared to concede that it really ain’t great weather for brass monkeys and I definitely need to get some more warm socks. Welcome to global warming where a pretty average July is rated by some as seriously cold.

End of July Update

Monthly means were 13.3 Max, a touch below the LR Mean of 13.5 and 6.8 Min which is a bit above the LR Mean of 6. Averages suggest we get 3 days below 2 degrees in the morning and we actually got 2. A very very average July.


About Greg

Middle aged male, resident at the finest of all latitudes, 37. Reputedly an indoor cricketer.
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